The Fossil Fuelled Fallacy

Press Release

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Sharm-El-Sheik, 12 November 2022 - While over 600 fossil fuel lobbyists have been reported to be at COP27 promoting gas as a ‘transition fuel’ at the UN Climate Talks, a new report deconstructs key arguments deployed by the fossil fuel industry, and a number of European governments, to justify their current "dash for gas" in Africa.

The Fossil Fuelled Fallacy: How the Dash for Gas in Africa will fail to deliver development outlines how expanding gas production in Africa would undermine almost every element of development – increasing risks of stranded assets and expensive energy, encouraging foreign ownership, creating fewer jobs and harming health and livelihoods across the continent. The report makes it clear that the ‘dash for gas’ is nothing more than a shortsighted strategy to profit from the energy crisis, where the fossil fuel industry has misappropriated the language of climate justice in order to legitimize a huge expansion of fossil fuels across Africa. 

By cross-referencing economic, social and environmental analyses, this policy briefing finds that if the all-gas policy becomes a reality, the impacts will be devastating for Africa's economies, environment, communities and climate. 

The report was produced by the Don't Gas Africa initiative, a network of dozens of African-led civil society organisations in collaboration with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. 

Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa founder and Director, said: This report confirms that the pro-gas rhetoric of governments is in no way intended to help the African continent "develop". It is once again a trap to lock us into the role of "gas station", so that we're useful to the Global North. We don't need more fossil gas. What Africa needs is a decentralized and democratic energy system based on our rich renewables potential. This is the real solution to end energy apartheid in Africa and put the world on the path to a just transition.”

Lorraine Chiponda, of the Don’t Gas Africa campaign, said: “If the dash for gas across Africa goes ahead, the continent will once again be subject to the unequal and unjust trade relations of the past, pulling wealth out of Africa and poisoning our land, water, and air. Time and time again, Africa has suffered due to the broken promises of fossil fuelled prosperity. This time is no different - the dash for gas will wreak havoc on African communities, the natural systems they depend on, and our climate.”

The report identifies a series of consequences and challenges that will emerge from a proposed expansion of gas production in Africa, many of which would reinforce each other. Among them: 

• Locked-in fossil fuel infrastructure will do very little to improve energy access and end energy poverty, create good jobs or further development. For instance, in Nigeria, despite decades of fossil fuel production, only 55 percent of the population had access to electricity in 2019.

• Many of the new gas discoveries in Africa will take many years to come online. Governments will therefore not benefit from current prices, will be saddled with increasing debt burdens, and have assets that will become stranded. Over the next decade, the fossil fuel industry is gambling $230 billion in oil and gas projects that could eventually become stranded. By 2050, this figure rises to $1.4 trillion at risk.

• Gas production expansion will not lead to a boom in jobs. Jobs in fossil fuel production are estimated to fall by around 75 percent by 2050 in a “well below” 2°C scenario, with 80 percent of the employment losses associated with declining upstream fossil fuel production

• Any investment poured into fossil fuels displaces investment into distributed, clean and affordable renewable energy systems that will bring immediate benefits to African communities, while the potential for wind power in Africa at almost 180,000 terawatt hours per year, which is enough to satisfy the entire continent’s current electricity demands 250 times over.

• The direct impacts of fossil fuel production will continue to destroy lives and livelihoods in Africa. Every stage of fossil fuel production - from exploration to combustion - has direct impacts on surrounding communities and the environment.12 Both onshore and offshore gas exploration in Africa has been shown to force communities from their land, disrupt key fisheries and crops, and threaten biodiversity hotspots which many depend on for livelihoods and sustenance. If the dash for gas gathers pace, these direct impacts will intensify. 

Bhekumuzi Bhebhe, of the Don’t Gas Africa campaign, said: “European governments, multinational fossil fuel companies, and their financial backers are all too willing to subject Africans to pollution, environmental degradation, and more frequent and severe climate impacts, while they profit at our expense. The economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these mega-projects are too great and will only hamper the sustainable development of the continent.”

Freddie Daley, research associate at the University of Sussex and lead author of the policy briefing, said: “The idea that fossil gas will bring prosperity and opportunities to Africans is a tired and overused fallacy, promulgated by those that stand to benefit the most: multinational fossil fuel firms and the elite politicians that aid and abet them. Africa has the opportunity to chart a different development path, paved with clean, distributed, and cheap energy systems, funded by African governments and those of wealthy nations that did the most to create this crisis. We cannot let Africa get locked-in to fossil fuel production because it will lock-out Africans from affordable energy, a thriving natural world, and clean air.” 

Rebecca Byrnes, Deputy Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, stated: “There is an urgent need to stop exacerbating the destructive effects of gas production on people's health, livelihoods and environment, and instead support the development of renewable energy on the continent that has the largest renewable energy potential in the world. It is time for rich countries to move from exploitation to cooperation so that Africa and the world can move equitably out of the fossil fuel trap and build a just and sustainable future for all.”